Will draft EU-UK deal keep UK in the EU?

According to most commentators, the draft agreement negotiated by PM Cameron in Brussels will not change much as regards the UK’s “existential questions” concerning the EU, but could influence 12% to 15% of pro-Brexit voters to change their vote if Mr Cameron decided to support the “in”, writes Florentin Collomp in Le Figaro.

In a guest commentary in Der Tagesspiegel, Martin Schulz gave his opinion on the reform deal between the UK and the EU and expressed he is convinced that the EU is better off with the UK as a member, but not at any cost. Something echoed by an opinion piece in Het Financieele Dagblad which writes the EU is right in staying firm in the negotiations with the UK as the country demands changes to its EU membership rules. Besides, YouGov latest poll shows that the Brexit is taking the lead, according to member states’ media in Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Malta and Latvia. Indeed 45% of the Brits are ready to leave the European Union.

The Telegraph‘s front page reports that it will warn that a ‘no’ vote will cause migrant camps to start appearing in South East England. Separately, it reports on today’s launch of the GO Movement campaign for a ‘no’ vote. Peter Schutz in Týždeň weekly also warns against consequences of UK’s possible exit from the EU. Professor Dominique Moïsi pleas in favour of the UK’s EU membership in his column in Les Echos: if the UK wants “a future as bright as its past, its only choice is to stay part of the Union”.MEP Guy Verhofstadt’s column in L’Opinion is another plea for keeping UK in the EU.

In the UK, the markets are already pricing in a vote in favour of Brexit, notes Ian King in the Independent. Yet, Roger Bootle argues in a Daily Telegraph comment piece that a ‘no’ vote wouldn’t necessarily damage the country’s financial services industry. One the other hand, the European Council’s willingness to offer concessions to keep the United Kingdom in the European Union shows that the union is working for the member states, not against them as is often believed, writes Berlingske‘s Editorial Board in a commentary.

In its editorial, Le Monde writes that the UK has been offered huge concessions. For its part, Helsingin Sanomat’s editorial considers that nothing is enough for Britain in the EU. But Britain’s requests would deeply affect the structure of the EU, turning it into a Union based on economy and not on politics, regrets Romano Prodi in a commentary in Messaggero. Many other editorials as INYT’s one underline that everyone would lose if the UK exits the EU. The fear of a Brexit still exists. For instance Saturday’s daily Postimees editorial writes that while there is a group of EU member states that is increasingly dissatisfied with the state of the EU, the UK has gone further than most by promising to organise a referendum on the country’s continued membership.

Henrik Müller comments on Spiegel.de, that a Brexit could lead to the collapse of the European Union. According to Mr Müller, it is not safe to say that European concessions would lead to the UK’s continuation in the EU. Furthermore, Peter Dominiczak explains in The Daily Telegraph that as French-English border cooperation deals would no longer apply, a ‘no’ vote in the country’s EU referendum will cause migrant camps to start appearing in South East England.

Several British editorials make a parallel between the current situation and Margaret Thatcher. Her friend, Lord Pearson, continues to campaign for exiting the EU as he considers the EU a “corrupt octopus”. Another of Thatcher’s close relations, Charles Powell, her former right hand, said that Mrs Thatcher would not have wanted a withdrawal from the EU if she were still alive, De Telegraaf writes. Lëtzebuerger Journal reports that British Prime Minister David Cameron has started a two-week tour across the EU to seek support for his EU reforms in Poland and Denmark. After his declaration on limiting social benefits, Cameron is not likely to receive Poland’s support. Even in Denmark, where the UK has some support, Mandag Morgen, writes that they should not make the British Prime Minister David Cameron and his party their role model.

Rizospastis notes that Spain is especially discontent towards EC President Jean-Claude Juncker, because he did not show enough courage to the demand of Mr Cameron to impose limitations in the benefits to migrant workers from the other EU countries.