The EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and One Belt, One Road: Can they work together?

The three main integration projects in the Eurasian landmass: the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative geographically overlap. Historically if great powers had overlapping spheres of influence there would almost certainly be conflict between them – but in a new Centre for European Reform (CER) policy brief ‘The EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and One Belt, One Road: Can they work together?‘ ( http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/pb_eurasian_IB_16.3.17_0.pdf ), Ian Bond argues there is an opportunity for them to work together to avoid conflict and look for synergies between their objectives.

Russia and China have agreed to pursue convergence between OBOR and the EAEU; and the EU and China are already major economic partners, looking for opportunities to work together in the countries involved in OBOR. However the EU is rightly suspicious that the EAEU is more of a Russian geopolitical project than a genuine economic union between its members.

To fix the relationship between the EAEU and the EU, Bond argues that:

The EU should not dismiss the EAEU out of hand – there may be scope for an innovative approach to diplomacy and economic co-operation across a huge expanse and for the benefit of an enormous population.
The EU should approach this incrementally, starting with modest objectives and aiming to build confidence among the parties gradually, given the differences among them.

There are considerable obstacles to making progress. The EU is overwhelmed by internal and external challenges. Russia has compensated for economic weakness by being disruptive internationally so that other powers are obliged to pay attention to it. China has proclaimed itself a champion of globalisation, but the playing field for foreign businesses in China is still far from level. Nonetheless, there are shared economic and security interests in Europe and Eurasia that the parties could pursue.

Commenting, Bond said: “In the era of Donald Trump, Europe can no longer rely on America to protect the liberal international trading order. The EU should certainly try to persuade the US to stick to its traditional policy. But hedging, by trying to find some common ground with the former Soviet states and China, is better than watching passively as the existing order is replaced by something much more hostile to the EU’s values and interests”.