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‘Remain’ (in the EU) leads by seven points – ComRes/ITN

“Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels). The seven point lead is the lowest recorded in a ComRes telephone poll since the General Election, however, it is in line with the eight point lead in the February ComRes / ITV News poll (although another ComRes poll for the Daily Mail had shown the Remain lead rising to 12 points after David Cameron had agreed the deal in Brussels).

In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

The poll also finds that David Cameron is the most important politician in deciding how people will vote at the referendum. One in three (34%) Britons say the Prime Minister will be important in deciding how they vote. Boris Johnson is named by 29% while one in four (24%) say Jeremy Corbyn will be important to them.

Leaving the EU seen is seen by more Britons as a risk than remaining in the EU. Seven in ten (69%) say that Britain leaving the European Union is a risk to the British economy, compared to 52% that say remaining is a risk. Nearly twice as many Britons say leaving is a big risk to the economy than say the same of remaining in the EU (30% and 17% respectively).

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