The first ComRes poll for the Daily Mail since David Cameron’s deal in Brussels suggests the British public are split on whether the Prime Minister succeeded or failed in improving Britain’s relationship with the EU, with 45% believing he succeeded and 42% feeling he failed.

However, with the majority of the British public believing that current level of net migration from the EU is too high (62%), most Britons think that the level of net migration to the UK will either not change (53%) or increase (21%) following Mr Cameron’s renegotiation. One in five (22%) think it will decrease as a result of the deal.

EU Referendum: Leave – Remain

· The “Remain” lead over “Leave” has fallen by 6 points since the last ComRes/Daily Mail poll in January. The “Remain” lead now stands at 12 points, with 51% of Britons now saying they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU at a referendum tomorrow, compared to 39% saying they’d vote to leave. However, this result is in line with a ComRes / ITV poll released last week (49% remain, 41% leave), providing further evidence that the renegotiation process has led to a narrowing of the gap between ‘remain’ and ‘leave’.
There is still division among Conservative supporters with 52% now saying they will vote to remain compared to 39% who say they will vote to leave. Labour voters meanwhile back “Remain” by 70% to 23%.
· Around two thirds (68%) of Britons say they are passionate about the issue of Britain’s membership of the EU. However, those likely to vote for “Remain” are more likely to say they are passionate than those supporting “Leave” (76% and 66% respectively).

The EU and British interests

· Britons are more likely to feel that levels of immigration to Britain and the strength of British democracy will be better off if Britain leaves the EU than if it remained. While on the economy and national security a plurality believe they will be better off if Britain remains in the EU.

Politicians and the referendum

· When deciding which side to campaign for at the EU referendum, the British public overwhelmingly think MPs should base their decision on the views of the public in their constituencies (74%) as opposed to that of their party leadership (5%) or their own views (20%).

· In addition, three in five (61%) think it is wrong that government ministers were unable to air their views during David Cameron’s renegotiation, while only a third (35%) say they think this was right.

ComRes interviewed 1,000 GB adults by telephone between 19th and 22nd February 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.