Europe has demonstrated a surprising level of unity on its policy towards Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Even despite the political upsets of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. But it wouldn’t take much to rock the boat and undermine the hard-won consensus that upholds the current sanctions regime. It is possible to imagine several scenarios under which that unity could collapse and with disastrous consequences, according to a new report from the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The scenarios outlined in this paper demonstrate how little it would take for EU unity to crumble, but also that the EU has the cards in its own hands. If the EU’s policy is to fail, politicians will only have themselves to blame. This paper holds a mirror up to European politicians by showing the political forces that could undermine the EU’s current Russia policy and the strength and weaknesses of Europe’s own stance. The scenarios envisioned are:

1. The EU decides to enforce the Russian interpretation of the Minsk agreements on Ukraine, leading to local elections in the Donbas
2. The EU succumbs to Ukraine fatigue and accepts the status quo, including another frozen conflict in the neighbourhood
3. The US disengages from Ukraine and ends sanctions on Russia, throwing European policy into disarray
4. A “grand power bargain” between Trump and Putin shatters EU unity and allows Russia to bring Ukraine into its sphere of influence.

These scenarios are speculative, worst-case scenarios, but they reflect pressures and dynamics that are already in play. Evaporation of US commitment is putting on pressure on Europe and some member states are facing domestic pressure to lift sanctions. For now, the threat of Russia and the election of Donald Trump, has pushed Europeans closer together – but that unity cannot be taken for granted.

So what can the EU do to protect its Russia policy? It is important for the EU to account for the waning US presence by bolstering its own response and stepping in where the US is stepping out. It should also consider automating the sanctions renewal process and extending the renewal period to one year. This would lend greater credibility to the EU’s position that sanctions can only be lifted when Minsk is fully implemented and it would remove twice-yearly opportunities for Moscow to split consensus in the EU.

The full report can be found at http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/the_great_unravelling_four_doomsday_scenarios_7301