The EU has been increasing its engagement in Asia in
recent years writes Israel Rafalovich.
The main reason for the enhanced engagement are the significant
economic interests the EU has in the region and its concern about
recent developments which have raised tensions.
The conflict over the South China Sea and the nationalism associated
with it are identified by the European Union as the biggest risk
factor.
In order to help reduce the risk, the EU should set out its own ideas
for Asian security and work with Asian partners to promote them.
The EU can prepare geopoliticaly by investing in Asia’s political
architecture and by realising that Asia is more than just China.
There are many shared interests between the EU and Asia covering
political, security, economic and social issues. On issues of trade and economics, the EU is clearly showing that it as a strategy that is implementing.
Strengthening the EU-Asia side would strengthen the prospects for
global governance based on multilateral institutions to which both
Asia and the EU are strongly committed.
Concerning the linkage between the economic and security relations
between the EU and Asian countries, we should not forget the
prominent role of China. The security at sea, for example, on the maritime Silk Road path, is
an area where economy and security are entangled together. The
Malacca Straits represent for China, one of the main security issues
concerning energy trade.
The role that China is aiming to play as a security provider on the
Sea Lines of Communications(SLOCs) could represent a challenge to
the U.S. led world maritime security. On the other hand, it could as well as represent a common ground
for future collaborations. It will also depend on the United States
will to accept a major role from China in ensuring maritime security.
Collaboration with China in strengthening the SLOCs security could
be extremely beneficial in a time when European countries defence
budgets are shrinking.
The lack of a substantial military presence in Asia gives the EU greater
freedom of maneuvering to pursue its trade strategy without criticism
about containment from China.
The European Union is already firmly engaged in the race for access
to Asian markets. It concluded talks with Vietnam, a dynamic emerging
market of 90 million people.
Asian economies will drive global growth this year as rising external
demand and commodity prices help counter a gradual slowdown in
China according to the annual outlook 2017 report published by the
Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Officials at the ADB noted that Asia’s combined gross domestic product
is projected to expand by 5.7 percent in both 2017 and 2018. Regional growth is expected to reach 6.3 percent in 2017 and 6.2 percent
in 2018 the report said.
The report predicts that growth across Asia will far outstrip the collective
annual figure of 1.9 percent for the United States, Japan and the Euro area
in 2017 and 2018. Furthermore, officials at the ADB pointed out that the
Asia-Pacific region will still account for an estimated 60 percent of global
economic growth in the coming years despite the region adjusting to a more
consumption driven model.
Three years ago, the EU sealed a Free trade Agreement with Singapore and
in October 2014 the EU and Singapore have concluded the negotiations
of the investment part of the Free trade Agreement (FTA). The EU-Singapore (FTA) is the first deal between the EU and a Southeast
economy. There are over 10,000 European companies in Singapore,
many of which use Singapore as a hub. The European Union expects
that this agreement will open the door to the ASEAN market with 600
million consumers.
After four years of negotiations the European Union and Japan reached an
“agreement in principle” on a free trade deal. The agreement will cover about 28 percent of the world economy. The
“agreement in principle” means that the EU and Japan have yest to work
out final details of the deal as they are still divided over issues as the
dispute settlement mechanism for investors.
The Eu commission hopes the trade deal can take effect in 2019.
With ASEAN, the EU stands at an interesting new point for increased
cooperation. The EU could now reboot cooperation on a more equal base
with ASEAN.
ASEAN as well as the European Union have difficulties in getting their joint
voice heard and bot are split internally by outside powers.
Now, opening quickly the talks on the EU-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
becomes more strategically important.
The strong standing of the EU as an active and constructive member of
the ASEAN Regional Forum is because it is seen as an engaged but not
threatening, active but without geo-political agenda. In this way, the EU has a niche, in which it could engage as a super-
partner and not as another superpower.
The EU has realised that if it wants to have an impact in Asia, it will have
to take an active part in security discourses that have so far been dominated
by the region’s big powers: China, Russia and the United States.
The European Union contributes to Asia’s regional security by supporting
multilateral initiatives.
Not any longer is the EU afraid to criticise the major Asian powers when it
perceives their action to be harmful to Asian regional stability.
Furthermore, the European Union is not taking sides with Japan against
China or vice versa. The EU is reinforcing the trend to wards greater
outspokenness on Asian affairs.
There is a big difference between the EU and the other players in Asia. While
several seems primarily aimed at keeping China in check by focusing on
strengthening it security alliances in the area, the EU pivot to Asia by
contrast is not aimed against any particular country in the region.
The European Union should abandon its efforts to transfer it own post-war
solutions to the Asian situation. Instead, it should focus on rewarding
compromise and build on growing arms trade with the region to take a more
central security role.
The lack of a unified EU policy is the main reason why the arms embargo on
China cannot be lifted as it could potentially result in free-for-all, with
countries competing with each other to enter newly opened markets.
Arms transfers almost always involve security cooperation, whether in training,
after-sales services, or continued upgrades. The EU is therefore a much more
important security actor in Asia than many in the EU think it is, but the
main thrust of weapon policy is developed by member states, with commercial
considerations forming the most common factor.
The EU has developed a strong market presence in Asia especially in sales of
naval units. Basing the European Union’s foreign and security policy in Asia on an
alignment with U.S. policy is misguided. American diplomacy is closely linked to American economic interests in the
region. American and Eu firms are in competition in many areas, such as in the
fields of aerospace, transport equipment, public procurement, media and
entertainment and telecom.
The European Space Agency (ESA) is jointly with several other Asian countries
developing Galileo, a global navigation satellite system, offering the EU a
foothold in Asia’s evolving space related power relations.
Furthermore, several EU member states cooperate on counter-terrorism
initiatives and on security issues in Central Asia, a crucial area for One Belt
One Road.
Speaking out if the United States acts in a way that threatens stability in
Asia, is the logical step in becoming an independent player in Asian affairs,
and would strengthen the EU’s image as a neutral but engaged partner in
Asian stability.
The challenge now for the European Union is to keep up its engagement,
develop an independent voice and uphold a long-term commitment to
strengthening stability in the region. The market and political value of the EU Pivot to Asia should not be
underestimated.
This allows the European Union to make its presence felt across the whole
Asian policy spectrum and so to become an Asian power. It also allows Asian
elites the possibility to play the EU card against the U.S., be it in the common
currency, a free trade agreement or the purchase of a weapon system.
The European Union cannot remain indifferent to what is taking place in Asia
because of the increasing inter-connectivity between Europeans and Asians.
The interconnectedness of security in Asia and Europe has been illustrated
by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The EU does not expect Asians to remain
neutral between the EU and Russia over the crisis in Ukraine. But, conversely
Asian expect the EU to side with those in Asia who oppose any change of
status-quo by force or coercion.
Falling in line behind the U.S. ensures that the United States will find its way
into Asian markets before the EU does, as well as allowing the United States
a better position to negotiate terms for market entry.
The EU efforts to play a more active global role will require closer engagement,
cooperation and dialogue with rapidly changing and increasingly dynamic
countries of Asia.
At the same time it is necessary for Asians to pay more attention to developments
within the European Union, to support efforts to improve educational and cultural
exchanges and to try and overcome differences on human rights and other issues.
The European union has the potential to shape the role it wants to play in Asia. It
should deepen relationships with like-minded democracies in the region.
The EU has a new reality to face in Asia. It does not have an automatic seat at the
Asian table and therefore it must work harder to secure its own self-interests.
It should focus on institution building and rethink how it can help bolster ASEAN.
The European Union needs to think and act bigger, quickly and develop a much more
aggressive pivot to Asia.
Israel Rafalovich is a freelance journalist based in Brussels from where he covers European
affairs as well as the European institutions in Brussels
