A quarter of a century after the Soviet Union collapsed, the six Eastern European states that are members of the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) still find themselves stuck between the West and Russia. Western organisations want them to be stable and prosperous but do not fully embrace them, while an assertive Russia wants to keep them in its sphere of influence. 

In a new CER policy brief ‘Contested space: Russian and EU relations with Eastern Europe’, ( http://tinyurl.com/z2fhwxr) Ian Bond argues that both the EU and Russia have used their soft and hard power in Eastern Europe in ways that have undermined their influence. On one side, Russia’s willingness to use economic and military coercion has often alienated people who might otherwise voluntarily align themselves with Russia. On the other, the EU has never been able to agree on whether any Eastern European country should be given even a distant and conditional perspective of membership.

Bond argues that with no prospect of joining Western institutions for the foreseeable future, the Eastern European countries have to take more responsibility for their own fates. Bond proposes that they should:

• increase their internal resilience and strengthen the rule of law
• make sure that minority ethnic groups have a stake in society
• have good political and trade relations with Russia based on mutual advantage
• strengthen their links with other major powers, including China

At the same time, the West should use the coming years to persuade Moscow that regardless of whether Eastern European countries join Western organisations, it is in everyone’s interests that they should be prosperous, stable and well governed.

The biggest challenge may be for Russia to see its neighbours in a different light, as potential partners, not as a threat that can only be countered by weakening them.

Commenting, Bond said: “While I would hate to say that countries like Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine will never join the EU and NATO, the practical reality is that they will not meet the conditions for membership for a long time, and the political reality is that Western governments have no desire to confront Russia over them. That being so, it would be better to look for a long-term approach to managing the internal and external challenges of the region, in the interests of Russia, the West and above all the countries themselves”.