As Michel Barnier and David Davis are gearing up for the second round of Brexit talks on July 17th, the CER publishes a timely and topical policy brief, ‘Brexit maze: The role of EU institutions in the negotiations’ by Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska. The full paper can be downloaded here – http://cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2017/brexit-maze-role-eu-institutions-negotiations

Theresa May does not have a majority in the UK Parliament. But Commons voting on the Queen’s Speech last week, in which MPs rejected an amendment guaranteeing a parliamentary vote on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, showed that Westminster is unlikely to force the prime minister to be more open about the government’s objectives. In her policy brief, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska argues that the best hope for citizens, businesses and other interest groups affected by Brexit is to look to the EU institutions for information and influence. Unlike the British government, the EU institutions have been transparent about their negotiating objectives and red lines from the moment the UK voted to leave the EU. She argues that Theresa May is wrong if she thinks that she can ignore the EU institutions and negotiate the UK’s exit directly with the 27 governments. She offers a guidebook for stakeholders on how they should conduct their advocacy in Brussels:

• Study the timetable for the talks. Michel Barnier wants to assess whether he has achieved ‘sufficient progress’ in the negotiation on the divorce deal by autumn 2017, before moving on to scoping out future relations with the UK.
• Do not put all your eggs in the Commission’s basket. Barnier negotiates on behalf of the EU, but the member-states will have to conclude the final agreement, and will steer Commission’s work from the back seat.
• Do not underestimate the role of the European Parliament. Stakeholders should not wait until the final text of the agreement is on the agenda for ratification before briefing MEPs on their concerns.
• Do not expect the EU institutions to talk about a future UK-EU free trade agreement in advance of the second phase of the negotiations. The EU will want to show that it means what it says about sequencing.
• Prepare for a ‘no deal’ scenario. The chance of the UK going over the cliff with no divorce agreement might have fallen as a result of the British general election. But it is still possible that May or her successor may find it politically easier to take the UK out of the EU without a deal than to make compromises that would upset Tory hardliners. Stakeholders should hope for the best and plan for the worst to avoid a hangover on March 30th 2019.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska said:
“It seems clear that even after the election Theresa May is determined to be as secretive as she can about the Brexit negotiations; while the EU is happy to be transparent. For all those whose lives or businesses will be affected by Brexit, the next three months will probably be their last chance to make the EU’s negotiating team familiar with their concerns in relation to the divorce terms”.