The Sa(l)m-Cam relationship

It may be cosy now, but Alex Salmond is taking a massive gamble by linking cuts to independence

By David Lee

It's a startling fact missed by many in the aftermath of the election and the new politics at Westminster; in Scotland, not one of the 59 seats changed hands compared with the 2005 election.

The only sitting MPs who lost were the SNP’s John Mason and Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie, both winners in mid-term by-elections when Labour was at an exceptionally low ebb. Labour regained both seats and even held on to ultra-marginal Edinburgh South, where newcomer Ian Murray won to the surprise of everyone, including his own party.

As I wrote just before the election, all the main parties in Scotland were hoping for the best - or, at least, hoping to avoid the worst. Yet no one expected quite such a stalemate, and the Conservatives were certainly the most disappointed with David Mundell remaining the only Tory MP in the Scottish village. The party is evaluating what went wrong and why it is struggling to make an impact more than 20 years after Margaret Thatcher used Scotland as a test-bed for the poll tax.

Yet despite the Conservatives' poor showing, the party could still play a major part in the future shape of politics north of the border. All eyes have shifted to next year's Holyrood election and whether the SNP can hold on to its wafer-thin advantage over Labour.

In 2007, just 48 votes in Cunninghame North gave Alex Salmond the chance to form his minority government - and now the chance to forge a relationship with the Cameron coalition at Westminster.

Publicly, the early exchanges between the two have been cordial and positive. Mr Cameron came to Scotland to meet Mr Salmond within days of being confirmed as Prime Minister, and the word "respect" has been a regular feature of public pronouncements. The pair appear to have gone beyond first-date awkwardness when Mr Salmond and representatives of the other devolved administrations sat around the Cabinet table in Downing Street - especially when it emerged that a deal was close on the Fossil Fuel Levy for Scotland.

This is likely to put £182 million towards the SNP's ambitious (and hugely expensive) renewable energy agenda, with possibly another £190 million delivered in London Olympics consequentials. The SNP will also benefit from the Conservatives' agreement to respect its Holyrood budget for the next year, taking the chance to go into the 2011 election without having to wield the axe.

At the same time, greater tax powers and other legislative responsibility are heading Scotland's way, while the Westminster coalition offered Scottish Climate Change Minister Stewart Stevenson the chance to go on a major green delegation, a huge change from Labour’s approach.

However, there are deep and fundamental problems bubbling beneath the surface - and when the realisation of the scale of cuts starts to hit home, the Sa(l)m-Cam relationship seems certain to fracture.

Economists estimate that Scotland could lose up to £1.9 billion next year as a direct result of cuts imposed from London - and more in the years to come. This is where the relationship of respect will collapse and open up the battle-lines ahead of the election.

As the poll comes nearer, Mr Salmond is likely to rack up the pressure over "Westminster cuts" and link them to Scottish independence. He will argue that the imposition of cuts shows Scotland has to seize the initiative and take control of its own destiny. In short, if there are cuts to make, Scotland should make these decisions itself - not have them imposed from London.

If he chooses to merge the two issues into one, Alex Salmond is taking a huge gamble. The SNP will certainly fare far better in the Holyrood elections, but its flatlining Westminster vote suggests the appetite for independence is still nothing like voracious enough to deliver a “yes” vote in a referendum.

The Nationalists will also face a resurgent Labour party that performed better in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK on 6 May. Perversely, the Labour message will not be that different from the SNP - minus the independence bit. Labour will also savage the Westminster coalition for the scale and timing of the cuts and accuse Messrs Cameron and Clegg of threatening a double-dip recession.

With the trade unions likely to be vocal too, Labour could win serious votes - and with both main parties banging the drum on cuts, the Conservatives could really be squeezed.

Beyond the cuts, policy matters are likely to be affected by what happens in England. Under Labour, the opening up of the education system went far further in England than Scotland and, with Mr Cameron's pledge to offer new providers the chance to join an already varied landscape, Scots might start to ask why they are still stuck with a tired old command and control model. A massively successful curriculum flexibility project in Kirkcudbright and moves to pilot community-based management of schools in East Lothian might start to take hold if England is seen as charging ahead and leaving Scotland behind.

Similarly, the NHS - so long a sleeping policy giant in Scotland - might be back on the agenda as cuts start to bite and questions are asked about whether things can be run differently and better. The Nationalists are also bound to face fierce criticism for their failure to deliver a significant programme of public works under the much-maligned (and rightly so) Scottish Futures Trust.

Yet these policy arguments are likely to be subsumed beneath the big issue of cuts and how that impacts on the independence question. Alex Salmond is taking a massive gamble by linking cuts to independence, but it might be the only decent card he has left to play. One thing is for sure, the relationship with David Cameron might look cosy for now, but it is very unlikely to be consummated.

28 June 2010

David Lee. Former Senior Assistant Editor of The Scotsman,